andrew melnick

Day one: Jerusalem briefings

Before leaving for the south, we had a couple of presentations which I thought worthy of relating.

Yaacov Amidor, former head of military intelligence

This is the most important war. Israel and the west must stop the momentum of the radical Islamic wave. This wave is both independent and connected - i.e. Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, hamas, etc. Iraq and Afghanistan are part of the same wave. If Israel succeeds to stop the momentum it will be very important for western liberal society - it is now or never. According to Amidor it is the last chance of democratic liberal systems to stop this wave. He thought Iraq would be the place but the U.S. has been unable to gain the advantage.

Israel pretended the threat did not exist for 6 years - yes there were some fights but we cannot be hostages of Hezbollah - they knew Hezbollah had rockets that could hit Haifa and Tel Aviv. Like the Americans with Cuba in 1962, Israel does not want to be hostage to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is an extension of Iran. The ambassador to Beirut from Iran is a member of the Iranian National Guard. And further, what is happening now is an extension of Iran to the world - put the whole world into flames in the Middle East. Nearly all money and weapons for Hezbollah come from Iran. About 10% of the weapons systems are Syrian. The attacks on Haifa are weapons that came from Syria. He comments that these weapons systems were gifts from Syria and this could not happen when Assad’s father was the head of Syria

He then commented on why it is necessary to stop the radical Islam wave.

• If the wave is not stopped, it will be the beginning of the end of moderate regimes in the Middle East.
• There is no way we can win in Iraq.

Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia understand this issue. The recent summit of the Arabs showed they understood this issue.

How do the weapons get to Lebanon? 90% of the weapons come from Iran, land in Damascus and are convoyed to the Hezbollah. Without this logistics support, Hezbollah has no military capability. Since Assad’s son took over, the Syrians have supplied weapons systems with a 220 kilometer range. From the Syrian point-of-view, Hezbollah is their last foot print in Lebanon. President Bush is right in asking the Syrians to stop. Hezbollah decision making is a combination of the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iranian National Guard.

General Amidor is against attacking Syria If Israel achieves its goals in Lebanon; Syria will lose their influence in Lebanon. Lebanon is a fragile democracy. The Lebanese and the international effort pushed the Syrians out of Lebanon. To achieve democracy in Lebanon, Hezbollah must be moved out. You cannot have a state within a state and have democracy. Lebanon needs theinternational community to achieve this goal.

He is optimistic that this can be achieved. Two-three years ago, it was felt there was no way the Lebanese could push out the Syrians, but it happened and it can happen again. The Lebanese cannot do it themselves, they need an international commitment.

• Israel gains security in the north

• The Lebanese gain democracy and a better economy

• The world gains the ability to deal with a nuclear Iran

Military Situation

The air force and Special Forces are operating in depth in Lebanon. They must be in the country to reduce the ability of the Hezbollah to launch rockets—eliminate launchers, not rockets. They must also eliminate the ability of the Syrians and Iranians to bring weapons into Lebanon.

Israel should not agree to a cease fire until the soldiers are freed and Hezbollah’s potential is eliminated. Israel needs the international community to achieve these goals. He commented that Nasrallah—Hezbollah’s leader—was most surprised that we responded so strongly to the attacks and kidnapping. Osama Bin Laden was surprised when the U.S. went to Afghanistan. Totalitarian leaders assume democratic countries are soft. They do not realize there is a red line and when it is crossed democracies respond. Nasrallah was also surprised by the lack of support by many of the Arab states. He was also surprised by the lack of pressure on Israel from the international community. He was also surprised by the reaction of the Lebanese govt. His only comment on the south was withdrawing military forces, not the settlements, was a mistake.

Benny Dagan, Deputy Director of Intelligence in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

I will just briefly report some of his comments. Israel seems to have more good will than normal with the E.U. countries. Hoping it will translate into political achievement. The G-8 statement was extremely positive because of very strong American position. Without going into details, the statement overcame a problem of sending international forces into southern Lebanon by naming Hezbollah as a militia in southern Lebanon. The details are not worth relating. They are starting to deal with the parameters of an international force. The only thing it cannot be is a NATO force that is a red flag for the Russians. The Russians still consider NATO their enemy. The communiqué of the E.U. was unexpectedly good. It reflects the Israeli foreign minister’s efforts, the pragmatic voices of the Arab world, and the American effort. The Europeans understand the Israelis are fighting a coalition of the bad guys. Need to weaken Hezbollah and therefore by extension, Iran. The ultimate goal is to put more restraints on Hezbollah—but they won’t disappear and give more power to others in Lebanon. All of this will not be easy. France has analyzed the threat of Iran to European interests in the Middle East and now understands. The Iranians are making regular visits to Syria to make sure they don’t defect.

Eran Lerman Direcor of the AJC Office in Israel and former Colonel IN IDF Intelligence:

Re Internal Israeli dynamics: they misread us collectively. Totalitarians misread a divided democratic society. Nasrallah thought we were basically a weak society that had no glorified desire for death. The Jews want to live and we love death. This was a profound mistake. Democratic societies like to live but know how to come together. To the left in Israel this war was not over a controversial piece of real estate that we were fighting over. We were fighting over sovereign land and we cannot live in the region if we do not respond.
Re disproportionate use of force: this is not what we are talking about - this war was designed to destroy threats to the south and north. It is backed entirely by a broad range of opinion in Israel. This was a surprise to Hamas and Hezbollah and as Eran said to the company people in Washington - i.e. the C.I.A.
The next email will be mainly personal experiences in visits to a town in the south under attack from Gaza and a visit to Haifa in the north with attacks from Lebanon.

I will give you some personal experiences in Sderot in the south and Haifa in the north from our AJC trip.

On our way to Sderot we stopped at a beach area south of Askelon, I believe. There, in 36 hours, the Israelis set up a tent city to handle about 1,000 people—families—from the north. While it was crude facilities it took them out of living in bomb shelters most of the time.

In Sderot we met with the town’s mayor. If you look at a map, Sderot borders the northeast corner of Gaza. The Qussam rockets have a short range and explosives of about 15 pounds. They have been coming in at about 8 or more a day. I asked the mayor what his biggest issues were - he said the kids - the trauma they are suffering from. He said you could see it their paintings in school. The young kids are painting tanks, rockets, and figures with blood all over them and ugly pictures of Arabs. Most of the paintings are in red. They wanted to send the kids north in the summer for relief, but that is out because of the attacks up north. He also took us to the elementary school which is only about ½ mile from the Gaza border. Two Qussam rockets hit on the street right where the school buses let the kids off. If they had landed 20 minutes later it would have been a disaster. I saw more damage of houses but that is what these people are living through. In one case, the house was a large very attractive modern house in all respects. The rocket hit the house took out part of the roof and destroyed the bedroom. Luckily the family was out.On the way back to Jerusalem, we stopped at the Gaza border. Interestingly, while we were there, the Israelis fired artillery shells at random times and places into the no-mans land. A major electric generating station is close to the Gaza border in Israel. It supplies electricity to Gaza. Despite that, the Hamas has fired rockets at the plant to damage it.Notes from day two:

On day 2 we left Jerusalem for Haifa. On the way up on the Israel north south toll road we were stopped for about an hour because the police had intelligence that a suicide bomber had entered Israel from Jineen. They caught him but again it created disruption for commerce.

While on our way to Haifa, three khytusha rockets hit Haifa at different times over a three hour period in the morning. There are two different khytusha rockets - one of short range that carries about 10 kilograms of explosives and one of 225 kilometer range that carries 40 kilograms of explosives.

Our first stop in Haifa was at the hospital. It is the largest hospital in the northern region and receives the worst cases from other hospitals in the region. Outside the hospital’s emergency room were about 20 gurneys (I know there is a better word for it but it is late at night) waiting for victims.

We visited the emergency room which is relatively small and most important is not fully protected from rocket attack.

We then visited some of the civilian victims of the rocket attacks. They will attempt to raise $10 million to build a fully protected emergency room and beds. I think they are looking for private funding. The victims that we visited had been wounded during an attack on the train station. As I recall three were killed. We met with four of the victims who all are recovering. The rocket warheads consist of thousands of small balls - about 1/16” in diameter -like small ball bearings. They create enormous damage to a human being. Of the three that were killed, despite the fact they knew their names; it took them 3 days to identify them. After visiting these victims of a rocket attack, the air raid sirens went off and we hurried off to the bomb shelter in the hospital. After the all clear we went to visit a soldier who had survived the first attack by the Hezbollah where they abducted two Israeli soldiers. He was sedated but could answer some questions. His arms and legs were damaged and he had internal wounds but he will recover fully. His parents were there—they were immigrants from Russia and Poland. He was lucky—besides the two that were abducted; I believe another three were killed. Then our group stopped off to donate blood.

Our next stop in Haifa was at the mayor’s office. As you travel through Haifa, the street’s are empty. The only stores open are food and drug stores. The people stay home and wait for the next siren to take cover. The mayor met with Olmert on Tuesday. He said he knows Olmert for a long time and he is strong and determined. He said it would be a difficult war and it won’t be over soon. And then he said we must smash Hezbollah. At this meeting another air raid siren went off and we retreated quickly to the shelter.

After returning from the shelter, we met with the police commander of Haifa. Israel has a national police force - not local or regional. In this case he has about 500 police and it will be augmented by about 200 from Jerusalem and tell Aviv. As police commander he is responsible for not only control of the police in Haifa but also fire and he controls the those army units assigned to the home front. Someone asked him how they were able to locate and capture the suicide bomber that we were held up for. He made it sound very simple—although not easy to do - there is total coordination and cooperation among the national police, shin bet, and the army intelligence. It takes less than 5 minutes for these various arms to communicate with each other.

We then went on to dinner at the Dan ambassador hotel in Haifa high up on mount Carmel. For those who have not been to Haifa, it is a beautiful port city and reminds me of Hong Kong. Just before dinner began, there was the third air raid siren, so we had to trudge down three or four flights of stairs to the bomb shelter. Reminded me of all the trudging down we did at One New York Plaza for 9/11 type drills. After the all clear signal, we heard from an organization called Israeli flying aid. They are bringing supplies to the north to help the kids who are living and sleeping in shelters for the last six days without air conditioning and other essentials. They have gotten donations of air conditioners, dvds, tables, chairs and bedding mats. Toys-r-us is sending a truckload of toys.

That’s about it on the personal experiences. Back to Jerusalem and no stops this time. Hopefully tomorrow our group will meet with the Israeli foreign minister. It is still not fixed. She is an outstanding individual - dynamic and strong.

Regards from Jerusalem.
Day three: Notes from Jerusalem and Tel Aviv

These are my notes from our final day of our the first solidarity trip by an American group to Israel during the current hostilities. What you find is a land of contrast in these hostilities. In the south by Gaza, they live under the pressure of rockets from Gaza. Up north the same. In the central part of the country Jerusalem and Tel Aviv - life on the surface seems normal. Obviously soldiers have been called up and everyone is effected but the Israelis are carrying on.

The first notes are a contrarian’s opinion of the Israeli policy strategy.

Dr. Uzi Arad, head of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center of Herzilya:

When he was introduced, basically his past work history is a secret. Interesting. He is also an advisor to the foreign affairs and defense committee of the Knesset.He started off by saying strategy involves the correlation between the means and the ends. Wisdom is to know what not to do. Were recent strategies really the right priorities? This terrible struggle has been forced on us. We have not always chosen the best course.

This event in Lebanon - no one in Israel was ready for it. The Israeli public was thrown into war without debate. After the abduction, with in a very short period of time, Israel sent a force into Lebanon without debate.
Objective: bring force to bear so Lebanese govt. Exerts its authority over southern Lebanon and creates a “cordon sanataire”. First question - do we have the means? Most difficult to achieve. Is this ambition a bridge too far? No political process was set in motion to achieve what we want. We may be nearing a point where military activity is nearing the point of diminishing returns. What is evident is the policy side is lagging behind and evolving.

We do have to have an interest in a cease fire as losses increase. It is not obvious that the longer it takes the better it is.

If the purpose is to negate Hezbollah and establish a real Lebanese govt. In the south than it is the political that will resolve the issues. We need international state craft. Here the outlook is not bad. The moderate Arabs have been surprising and the Lebanese want a favorable environment. The international community is also positive. Secretary rice could create the opportunity and bring the change the Israelis want.

He sees the utility of the international force if it is given the marching orders, the means and the authority to implement U.N. resolution 1559. The Israelis are skeptical because of the current U.N. force in Lebanon. That force helped Hezbollah. The international force could neutralize Hezbollah as an organization. But it won’t be easy. Hezbollah is disciplined and vicious. There are sufficient elements to achieve part of the goals. The Arab world is for it. International community wants to do it. And finally, if you face Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran—you have to begin somewhere.

What was urgent about the disengagement plan for Gaza? Time was of the essence and the Iranian nuclear issue is key. The concentration of power is key. There was the IAEA damming report at the end of 2003. Time is what the Iranians are playing for. Get priorities right - the strategic one - for Israel Iran is an existential strategic issue - nothing else comes close.

How should the powers deal with Iran? Iranians are not rigidly committed to obtaining nuclear weapons - no matter what. Iran - right now - will obtain nuclear weapons without economic or military consequences. Confront them with credible offer - unless you do this - accept what is offered to you or else. There are enough dissidents in Iran that is likely there will be a deal. The nuclear is not inevitable.

Meeting with Tzippi Lini, foreign minister of the State of Israel:

Tzippi is a very impressive individual - she speaks directly and has strong opinions and presents them very effectively. I think this is the third time I have been in a meeting with her. She is apparently very well thought of by all sides in Israel.

On Iran, Nasarallah had promised the Lebanese govt. Not to attack until after the tourist season. Then the attacks occurred. They were done to take Iran off the hook in response to the g-8 meeting which was scheduled to focus on the Iranian nuclear issue. In addition Nasarallah needed to influence Hamas and the Palestinian situation. He and the Iranians were worried that Syria was getting soft on Hamas

In speaking to the group she said it is important that Israel is not along. The current situation is both difficult and difficult. It is the first time since the formation of the state of Israel that internally and with many in the international community we share the same views. The border with Lebanon is accepted by the international community. It was an unprovoked attack. Hezbollah represents the Iranian views—to take Israel off the map. Iran is not the only threat to the region. Nasarallah - the Hezbollah leader - wants to prevent any goals for peace - his goal is to represent the Palestinian cause.

For the first time moderate Arab states understood Israel’s position in public. Jordan, Egypt, Abu Dabi, and Saudi Arabia understand the issue of Hezbollah - i.e. it is an extension of Iran.

The Israeli response to the abductions was in effect a measured response to a threat not to the incident. The Lebanese govt. Is responsible because it came from Lebanese territory. The Lebanese did not fully implement un resolution 1559 which called for the dismantling of the militias within Lebanon and therefore did not implement Lebanese sovereignty over its entire territory. Israel and the international community understand that Lebanon is too weak to push out Hezbollah even though it pushed out Syria—it needed international help.

Because of past experiences with international, there is an internal debate within the Israeli govt. As to how to implement or not an international force. In the past the international community thought such a force was carrying out its duties and when they weren’t Israel could not do anything.

A cease fire without implementation of G-8 agreement would be a victory for Hezbollah. The next day they would get arms from Iran through Syria. She is convinced that a premature ceasefire would work against peace in the middle east.

The civilian issue is a problem Hezbollah uses houses to hide weapons. Israel has dropped leaflets to warn civilians to leave and she said Lebanese television broadcast these warnings. Israel is working with European foreign ministers to remove foreign nationals. She understands the pressure on foreign ministers - they need to respond to their public - she is working with them to meet their domestic needs. When it comes to the media - she said in a strange way it is a Pavlovian response to blame Israel. The leaders of the key countries understand there is no issue about the borders - it was an unprovoked attack.

Uri Lubrani, coordinator of policy on Lebanon and Iran:

He served in Iran before the revolution.

He started by saying the current conflict is part of a larger conflict which began when Ayatollah Khomeini came to power. He challenged western values and the big satin  - the U.S. in practical terms, the war is being executed in Teheran - Iran is behind the planning and strategy. Many people don’t take the current head of Iran seriously. Take him seriously - very seriously - he means everything he says.

Ayatollah Khomeini predicted that the Shah’s regime would disappear—it did; the Soviet Union would disappear, it did; Saddam would disappear, he did; and now Israel and the United States.

According to the Iranians, Islam will challenge the U.S.. where does this come from. Analyze the books of the Arabs and Iranian world. The Israelis had a consulting firm analyze 115 books of the Iranian schools. What they found is the Iranian school curriculum is a war curriculum to fight the west and the united states. The struggle is a political conflict—painting the west as evil - teaching jihad and martyrdom. If you understand the Iranian education system, you understand why when they need suicide bombers they get hundreds of volunteers.

What is happening in Lebanon is not Lebanese and not Arab—it reeks of the Iranian military. They couldn’t care how many Lebanese are killed. They were surprised by the Israeli reaction - enough is enough.

Israel now realizes how deeply the Iranians have gotten involved in Lebanon. The actions will take time. It is important to understand this is a global situation. If Israel has a problem the u.s. will suffer. Important to deal with Iranian allies - most evil ally is Syria. Syria is helping the terrorists in Iraq. Take Syria away and you deal Iran a tremendous blow. Syria has scuds - but not much else.

He then made a personal comment - as a sabra he had been surprised by the solidarity of the Israeli people. Another speaker also said that she thought our generation was the last generation to be strong - wrong -this generation is strong.

In answering a question - he was pretty blunt - he said the Europeans are whores - he was talking about the dialogues the Europeans have with the Iranians- - the coming and goings and the Europeans are pleased with themselves that they were received by the Iranians but nothing happens - bottom-line Europeans are not to be trusted. The Iranians are just playing with us for time.

On the Iranian nuclear situation - he said there is no way they will be stopped. The question is who will have the finger on the button. The Iranians will be rational. Why? The economy is in dire trouble. Unemployment is reported at 26% and inflations is 30%. This is where the Iranian regime can be undermined. If there is no regime change in Iran, the u.s. is doomed in Iraq. On the other hand, as a result of Iranian influence in Iraq, the big Sunni groups have approached the U.S. for protection.

Meeting with Gideon Mayer - deputy director of public diplomacy, foreign ministry:

He started his discussion briefly with the question of proportionality—why such a military campaign over three abductions - the brief and simple answer was the proportionately was in relationship to the threat not the abductions - i.e. the Hezbollah missiles buildup.

He also spoke about the very favorable G-8 declaration on the middle east situation. He said the win came from two arms - traditional diplomacy and public diplomacy. All the Jewish organizations played a role—aapac and arc in the states. He mentioned the favorable position by the Canadian prime minister resulted in part by the efforts of the Canadian Israel committee.

Israel has been strongly criticized by its friends for not “playing” the p.r. game. He said they have campaigned with the government that good pr was important to their national security. He believes they have convinced the govt. Of the need for good pr. If we fail we will loose the support from the U.S. to contrast with that statement, he said he has little money - a budget of $8.5 million of which 60% goes to salaries. He said that is bubkas so he is schnooring for money.

The p.r. campaign for the state of Israel is determined by who is the target audience and the policy of the govt. Of Israel. There are different messages for different markets. Because of their limited budget, they focus on convincing the decision makers in each market. In the united states, the last polls show 67% support what Israel is doing. Better than the 6 day war.

Europe is more complicated. The polls and support improved after disengagement.

As a result of the abductions and the resulting military actions, their p.r. took a different direction. Each day, the foreign ministry, military, and prime minister’s office meet to decide what the message is for the day and who will deliver the message - and there is only one who speaks.

The criticism of the Israelis in the past were those who spoke good English did not know the message and those who knew the message did not speak good English. That has changed. Those who speak for Israel in English are natural born English speakers. However they are different for the u.s. and the o.k. because the o.k. needs a softer delivered message than the u.s.

Modern p.r. is picture and event driven - action dominates the talking heads. Talking heads do not make a difference with the general public. Usually they are on a split screen with pictures and a running word tape below. Pictures are critical and make the difference. They are working with the media to have pictures of the rocket attacks on Haifa to balance those of Beirut. Nonetheless the media has moved more to commentary from reporting. He commented on the b.b.c. he said they are dialoguing with them to get better balance. But he said when you visit their offices in London, nearly every desk has the guardian as their only paper - and he commented that the guardian is doing its best to delegitimize the Jewish state.

The blog is their next focus. People aged 18-35 get their news from the blogs. They are developing a strategy for the blogs by recruiting Jewish youngsters around the world to create blogs.

They avoid military officers on the screen. With the current military hostilities, they now are employing the chief of staff who is apparently a good spokesman.

Israel also focuses on the Arab world. They all appear on Al Jazeera. It is an important tool to dialogue with the Arab world. They have a web site in Arabic and Farsi.

He talked about this morning’s story when two Arab children were killed by a rocket attack. The issue was that the Israeli Arabs did not have shelter. The reason was the government did not expect the Arab population to be a target.

Regards from Jerusalem